BY ANTHONY OMOH
Nigeria’s aviation sector appears trapped by dangerous aviation fuel import reliance and growing uncertainty over the new Dangote Refinery. Many fuel marketers are now reluctant to import Jet A-1, not because demand has declined, but out of fear of how the refinery will reshape the market. This hesitation, Leading air transport specialist Dr. Richard Aisuebeogun warned, is creating a dangerous vacuum that could cripple supply and destabilise the entire industry.
Dr. Aisuebeogun delivered a stark warning in a powerful keynote address at the CITA Energies Colloquium held at the Radisson Blu October 23, 2025. “Despite being an oil-producing nation, Nigeria remains heavily reliant on imported Jet A-1,” he stated. This reliance is the root of the sector’s instability.
He revealed the shocking new development. “At present, many marketers are reluctant to import jet fuel,” Dr. Aisuebeogun told the audience. This reluctance is not due to a lack of demand, but from fear of the new Dangote Refinery. The result is a dangerous vacuum forming in the market.
The High Cost of Aviation Fuel Import Dependency
The core of the problem is a profound strategic failure. Dr. Aisuebeogun laid it bare. This aviation fuel import dependency “subjects our market to foreign exchange volatility and price fluctuations.”
The impact is catastrophic for airlines. “Jet A-1 constitutes a significant portion of airline operating expenses,” he explained. When fuel costs are volatile, it affects everything. “When fuel is unstable, the entire aviation value chain feels the shockwaves.”
From Import Crisis to Monopoly Threat
The situation has taken a dangerous turn. The promise of a solution is now creating a new problem.
Dr. Aisuebeogun confirmed that the hesitation of marketers is actively “undermining healthy competition.”
He issued a grave warning about the future. “If this trend continues, there is a risk that a single dominant supplier could emerge,” he said, which could lead to “price manipulation and market inefficiencies.” The nation could simply be trading one crisis for another.
A Fleeting Price Advantage and The Regulatory Cure
Amidst the turmoil, there is a fragile advantage. Dr. Aisuebeogun highlighted that Jet A-1 prices in Nigeria are currently between $0.60 and $0.85 per litre. This is lower than in neighbouring Ghana and Liberia where airlines in Ghana pay up to $1.25, and those in Liberia face prices around $1.10.
However, preserving this requires smart policy, not heavy-handed control. On direct government price regulation, he was unequivocal. “It would likely reintroduce a subsidy regime, which is no longer sustainable.”
His solution was clear. “Regulatory oversight to prevent monopolistic practices and encourage fair competition remains essential.” The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) must act as a vigilant watchdog.
Charting a Course to a Safe Harbor
The path forward requires bold vision beyond just fixing the aviation fuel import problem. Dr. Aisuebeogun called for massive infrastructure investment. He also pointed to the future, revealing that Nigeria is mapping a national Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) roadmap.
His concluding call to action was a powerful plea for collaboration. He urged the nation to build a sector that is “innovative, resilient, and globally competitive.”
The message is clear: Nigeria must break its aviation fuel import addiction without falling into the trap of a domestic monopoly. The stability of the entire industry depends on the choices made today.
