High air fares in Nigeria continue to draw public scrutiny, with passengers often blaming airlines for inflated ticket prices. However, insights from the Aviation Town Hall held on Thursday, 22 January, indicate that carriers alone are not the primary drivers of cost.
Industry experts argued that systemic constraints in operational capacity, aircraft maintenance, and fixed costs create structural pressures that make affordability a persistent challenge for domestic and international travel.
The forum, moderated by Sindy Foster, Managing Partner at Avaero Capital Partners, and Dr. Alex Nwuba of the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA), brought together aviation stakeholders, operators, and analysts to explore why high air fares are endemic. Dr. Nwuba clarified that ticket pricing is heavily influenced by airlines’ survival costs, including fuel, aircraft leasing, maintenance, and airport charges. He explained that “airline price for survival and cost components, which include fuel, lease, maintenance, and airport charges,” directly shapes what passengers pay.
Analysing High Air Fares
Using international comparisons, Dr. Nwuba noted that low-cost flights in the United States can operate at approximately nine thousand dollars per day per aircraft, while higher-cost carriers incur between seventy-seven thousand and one hundred and sixty-two thousand dollars per day. “What you are looking at in Nigeria are smaller aircraft, smaller fleets, and fewer seats, so costs per seat are inherently higher,” he explained. He further cited Federal Aviation Authority harmonised data showing a decline in domestic travel while international flights remain resilient, a trend reflecting systemic capacity pressures.
Dr. Nwuba highlighted the impact of grounded aircraft and maintenance delays, stating that “in Nigeria, crowded aircraft, maintenance delays, and financing constraints have all reduced availability, causing costs to rise by as much as twenty per cent. This is a structural issue. Without scale, airlines cannot achieve the unique cost efficiency needed to offer affordability.”
Sindy Foster emphasised the cyclical nature of capacity and cost, arguing that the issue extends beyond individual airlines. “Either capacity increases, meaning more seats are available to spread costs for each airline operating, or underlying costs come down in a sustained way. Without either, the loop will persist,” she said. Foster cautioned against assuming that simply adding more airlines will reduce fares. She noted that in 2025, around forty-four aircraft were operational, while seventy-nine remained grounded, demonstrating that additional airlines alone cannot resolve systemic capacity issues.
The concept of unit cost, or cost per available seat, was central to the discussion. Foster illustrated that when total costs are evenly spread across available seats, fares remain manageable. However, when fewer seats are available due to grounded aircraft or delayed maintenance, the same total costs must be divided among fewer passengers, driving fares higher. “Even if total costs fall slightly, a reduction in capacity pushes the unit cost higher. Before any margin is added, fares must increase simply to recover costs,” she explained. This defensive pricing mechanism, she added, explains why high air fares are not arbitrary but a reflection of structural inefficiencies.
High air fares also suppress demand, particularly in domestic markets where alternative travel modes exist. Foster observed that declining passenger numbers in 2024 and 2025 underscore the feedback loop between limited capacity and increased unit costs. Dr. Nwuba compared Nigeria with other countries, noting that states such as India and Kenya benefit from government subsidies and stable operational environments. “Nigeria faces higher cost impact volatility, imported maintenance, and heavy charges, while Sudan and India demonstrate that strategic system design can bridge the gap between fares and affordability,” he said.
Panelists stressed that operational aircraft availability is critical. Foster highlighted that airlines in Nigeria essentially sell one product seats and that the health of a carrier, and the fares passengers see, is largely dictated by how many seats are in service. “When capacity reduces because aircraft are grounded, maintenance is delayed, or parts are unavailable, the system triggers a contraction loop that pushes fares higher,” she explained. Fixed and operating costs, which do not fall rapidly during operational shocks, compound the problem, she added.
The session concluded that system-level interventions are necessary for sustainable affordability. Both Foster and Dr. Nwuba argued that increasing operational scale, addressing maintenance backlogs, and improving airport capacity are prerequisites for reducing high air fares. Dr. Nwuba noted: “The more important question is what keeps pushing capacity out of the system, and what would need to change to keep it in. Until that changes, fair outcomes will continue to look exactly as they do today.”
The Aviation Town Hall emphasised solutions rather than blame. Foster summarised: “When attention stays fixed on price, passengers see high air fares as arbitrary or unfair. In reality, they reflect the conditions under which the system operates. Only by addressing capacity constraints and operational inefficiencies can we achieve a more affordable and resilient aviation market in Nigeria.”
The discussion reinforced that high air fares are not solely caused by airline greed. Rather, they are a product of systemic operational, maintenance, and capacity challenges that must be addressed for long-term affordability.
