Nigeria’s Seasonal Climate Prediction, the 2026 SCP has projected a predominantly neutral global climate pattern, but with uneven rainfall distribution, higher temperatures and prolonged dry spells across several regions. The forecast highlights growing risks for aviation safety, food security and infrastructure resilience. Authorities say the 2026 SCP must now guide planning decisions across government and the private sector.
The 2026 SCP was unveiled in Abuja February 10, 2026, by the Nigerian Meteorological Agency at the NAF Conference Centre. The Federal Government warned that climate intelligence must move beyond awareness into structured national planning. Therefore, weather and climate data are expected to play a central role in aviation operations, agriculture, disaster preparedness and public health strategies.
Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, said climate variability has become a defining factor in modern governance. He noted that extreme weather events now influence economic outcomes, national security planning and the protection of lives. In addition, he described the 2026 SCP as a science-to-action document aligned with national priorities.
Keyamo stressed that aviation safety and efficiency depend heavily on credible meteorological input. He explained that climate data now functions as economic infrastructure, supporting both flight safety and long-term investment planning. However, he warned that development efforts not informed by climate science remain vulnerable and unsustainable.
The 2026 SCP highlights neutral ENSO, localised extremes
According to NiMet, the 2026 SCP was developed using key global climate drivers, including the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole. These indicators suggest a predominantly neutral ENSO phase. However, Keyamo warned that neutral conditions should not be misinterpreted as low risk, noting that rainfall timing, dry spells, and temperature extremes would still have serious implications for agriculture, aviation operations, and disaster preparedness.
Director General Nigerian Meteorological Agency, Professor Charles Anosike, said the agency’s forecasts are designed to support informed decision-making in a rapidly changing climate. He explained that timely and reliable climate information has become indispensable as extreme weather increasingly threatens lives, infrastructure and economic growth.
“Climate variability and extreme events are no longer abstract risks. They directly affect livelihoods, food security, infrastructure and national growth,” he said.
Anosike noted that meteorological science remains one of the world’s most innovation-driven fields. Therefore, NiMet has begun integrating advanced technologies into its operations. He disclosed that the agency has established a dedicated expert team to operationalise Artificial Intelligence in forecasting under the 2026 SCP framework.
He explained that improved modelling and digital tools would enhance forecast accuracy and response time. However, he stressed that technology alone is insufficient without effective dissemination and local application of climate information.
Rainfall timing, dry spells and August break
The 2026 SCP projects early rainfall onset across parts of the South, Middle Belt and selected northern states. However, late onset is expected in Borno State, with implications for planting decisions and water availability in the North-East. NiMet advised farmers not to rely on early isolated rains, but to follow predicted onset dates.
While normal annual rainfall is expected across most of the country, the 2026 SCP indicates above-normal rainfall in parts of the North, South-East and coastal belt, including the Federal Capital Territory. By contrast, pockets of below-normal rainfall are projected in parts of the North-West and South-West.
The forecast also highlights the risk of prolonged dry spells during critical periods of the season. Some states may experience extended rain-free days during mid-season, raising concerns for rain-fed agriculture, hydropower planning and water resource management under the 2026 SCP.
One of the most significant warnings is the prediction of a prolonged August break. NiMet said Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo could experience extended periods of little or no rainfall. Therefore, urban water supply, crop cycles and flood recovery planning may face increased pressure.
Heat stress, aviation safety and digital advisories
Temperature projections under the 2026 SCP indicate warmer-than-average daytime and night-time conditions across most parts of Nigeria. Authorities warned that this could increase heat stress, energy demand and operational challenges, particularly for aviation and outdoor labour.
Anosike said NiMet is expanding partnerships to downscale the 2026 SCP to local farmers and communities. He disclosed that digital advisory services are being fast-tracked in collaboration with local and international partners. However, he called for stronger engagement from state governments to broaden reach.
“The value of seasonal climate prediction lies in how well it is applied at the local level,” he said.
Permanent Secretary Ministry of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Yakubu Kofarmata, said the 2026 SCP must inform policies and investments, not sit on shelves. He warned that development without climate foresight exposes lives and infrastructure to avoidable risk. As Nigeria approaches the 2026 season, officials said preparedness, not prediction alone, will determine outcomes.
