The Nigerian Meteorological Agency, NiMet, has dismissed reports alleging a ₦5 trillion Farmer Loss linked to inaccurate weather forecasts. The Agency described the claim as false, unverified, and damaging to public understanding of Nigeria’s agricultural performance. According to NiMet, no credible data supports the assertion that Farmer Loss on this scale occurred due to its climate services.
NiMet’s position was contained in a statement signed by Acting Head, Public Relations Unit, Rabiatu Lawal Ado. The Agency said its attention was drawn to reports published on February 2 and 3, 2026, in two national newspapers. The stories attributed the Farmer Loss estimate to the Foundation for Peace Professionals without presenting verifiable data or an independent assessment.
The Agency stressed that claims of massive Farmer Loss must be supported by transparent methodology. NiMet argued that the publications failed to explain how the figures were calculated. According to the Agency, the absence of crop-specific data, regional breakdowns, or weather-event attribution makes the claim economically irresponsible.
Farmer Loss Claims Contradict Forecast Performance Data
NiMet stated that it has provided weather and climate services to Nigeria for more than 140 years. During this period, its forecasts have supported national planning across agriculture, aviation, marine operations, and disaster management. The Agency said its performance records directly contradict suggestions of systemic Farmer Loss linked to forecast failure.
For the 2024 and 2025 seasons, NiMet said its forecasts were evaluated by development partners, farmers across all geopolitical zones, and the World Meteorological Organization. These assessments reportedly showed forecast accuracy exceeding 90 percent. According to NiMet, this level of performance is well above the internationally accepted 60 percent benchmark.
The Agency explained that high forecast accuracy reduces Farmer Loss by enabling better planning. Accurate rainfall onset predictions help farmers choose planting windows. Reliable dry spell warnings also support irrigation decisions and reduce post-planting losses. NiMet said these benefits cannot coexist with claims of catastrophic Farmer Loss.
NiMet further emphasised that its Seasonal Climate Predictions are not theoretical documents. The Agency said they are practical tools used by farmers, extension officers, and policymakers. These predictions are supported by early warning alerts and localised agro-advisories designed for specific ecological zones.
The Agency explained that agro-advisories are issued in simple language. They focus on crop selection, planting depth, pest risks, and harvesting timelines. According to NiMet, these measures significantly reduce Farmer Loss by aligning agricultural decisions with observed climate patterns.
Dissemination channels also formed part of NiMet’s defence. The Agency said forecast products are shared through state governments, agricultural extension services, radio programmes, newspapers, and digital platforms. This broad distribution, NiMet argued, ensures that farmers are not excluded from critical climate information.
Agricultural Output Data Challenges Farmer Loss Narrative
NiMet cited findings from the executive summary of the 2025 Wet Season Agricultural Performance in Nigeria. The report was produced through collaboration among institutions across the agricultural value chain. These included research institutes, regulatory bodies, federal ministries, and state ministries of agriculture and livestock development.
According to the report, Nigeria recorded increases in both crop yields and livestock production during the period under review. NiMet said this outcome directly contradicts claims of widespread Farmer Loss. The Agency noted that production growth would not be possible if climate forecasts were consistently misleading.
The report showed that rice, maize, cowpea, yam, cassava, and groundnut production exceeded 2024 levels. NiMet said these crops are among the most climate-sensitive. Therefore, improved yields suggest that farmers effectively used available weather information to optimise output and minimise Farmer Loss.
In addition to increased production, the survey indicated a decline in food prices across all zones. NiMet said improved supply conditions contributed to this trend. According to the Agency, falling prices are inconsistent with claims of severe Farmer Loss, which would normally drive scarcity and inflation.
NiMet described Nigerian agriculture as a stabilising force during the period. The Agency said the sector continued to provide employment, food security, and income opportunities. These outcomes, NiMet argued, weaken narratives that portray the sector as having suffered unprecedented Farmer Loss due to forecast failure.
The Agency also pointed to ongoing government and stakeholder interventions. These include improved seed distribution, extension services, and climate-smart farming practices. NiMet said its forecasts complement these interventions by providing the climate intelligence needed to reduce Farmer Loss over time.
NiMet Urges Responsible Reporting on Farmer Loss
NiMet reaffirmed its commitment to national food security and climate resilience. The Agency said it remains focused on improving forecast delivery and farmer engagement. According to NiMet, constructive criticism supported by evidence is welcome, but sensational narratives risk undermining public trust.
The Agency urged civil society organisations and the media to engage responsibly when discussing Farmer Loss. NiMet said inaccurate reporting can discourage investment and create unnecessary fear among farmers. The Agency stressed that agriculture depends on confidence, planning, and reliable information.
NiMet said it will continue working with stakeholders to strengthen early warning systems. These efforts include deeper collaboration with state governments and farmer associations. According to the Agency, reducing Farmer Loss remains a shared responsibility requiring factual dialogue and data-driven analysis.
For context, NiMet operates under international best practices aligned with the World Meteorological Organization, while aviation-related weather services also meet standards recognised by bodies such as the International Civil Aviation Organization. This alignment, NiMet said, reinforces the credibility of its operational systems.
The Agency concluded that Nigeria’s agricultural performance data tells a more accurate story than speculative figures. According to NiMet, verified evidence shows resilience and improvement rather than catastrophic Farmer Loss. The Agency said it will continue to prioritise transparency, accuracy, and national development.
